Fledgling Democracies

*Russia upped the ante this week in the stare-down with Georgia by sending additional troops to Abkhazia. Here, the Chicago Tribune has the back story and an analysis of Russia’s geopolitical aims in the conflict.

*Voice of America chats with Depty Asst Sec of State David Merkel, who says that Russia would do well to take a more “hands-off” approach to the former Soviet states.

• On Wednesday, Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko urged Russia not to set aside the Agreement of Friendship, Cooperation and Partnership, a key treaty setting out relations between the two countries. Russia’s parliament suggested voiding the agreement in retaliation for Ukraine’s EU and NATO ambitions. See the EU Business story here.

• Kazakstan, home to 3.3 percent of the world’s oil reserves, announced that its economy’s growth will slow in 2009, to 6 percent or less after seven years with and average growth of 10 percent thanks to the skyrocketing price of oil. A hefty supply of oil will not be enough to ward off the ill effects of the credit crunch, says this Kazinform story.

Steve Breaux, or ‘Super Steve’ as he is referred to on his blog, is an international elections observer for the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe. He’s been chronicling his adventures surrounding the recent elections in Georgia - the photo above shows a typical rural polling station - and he has some particularly good images and information in his most recent post.

Check out his blog and learn how officials use UV light to thwart fraud, what Georgians do in lieu of absentee voting, and what sorts of refreshments one is typically offered at Georgian polling place.

Georgia held parliamentary elections on Wednesday, and though the ruling party won the day, it was not without some serious drama which has, of course, led to much finger-pointing, speculating and insinuating on all sides.

An opposition leader was shot on the way to a polling station, buses bringing ethnic Georgians from across the Abkhazia border to vote exploded, and opposition supporters threatened to ambush the Central Elections Commission…but any hope of storming of the CEC evaporated when a night time rally turned out to be sparsely attended.

Why the poor showing? A soccer match, according to opposition organizers, who say President Saakashvili scheduled elections to coincide with the League of Champions final match broadcast, banking on the liklihood that the event would take priority over politics in the minds of Georgian men that evening.

Kommersant (”Russia’s daily online”) has the full story here and here.

Moscow is preparing to inaugurate incoming president Dmitry Medvedev in a ceremony at Red Square Wednesday.

[Medvedev is the subject of a great photo essay on the Discovery Institute's Real Russia Project blog. Take a look - really nice shots.]

This Moscow Times story has a rundown on what the inaugaration ceremony and Victory Day parade (scheduled for Friday) will consist of.

Interesting tidbits:

• “Once Medvedev has assumed his duties, one of his first acts as president is expected to be the appointment of his old boss, Vladimir Putin, to the position of prime minister.”

• “One diplomat who plans to attend is outgoing U.S. Ambassador William Burns, according to a U.S. Embassy spokeswoman. Last week, Burns had his confirmation hearings for his appointment as undersecretary of state for political affairs — the No. 3 job in the U.S. State Department — and he is holding his going-away party Tuesday night. By chance, Burns’ attendance at the inauguration will be one of his last acts as ambassador to Russia.”

• “Georgia has no plans to snub its invitation to the ceremony, despite rising tensions with Moscow over the breakaway republic of Abkhazia, a senior Georgian diplomat said. ‘We are a normal government, and we do not need to resort to this kind of protest,’ Georgian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigol Vashadze told Interfax on Friday. ‘There are plenty of other ways to express protest, unease, dissatisfaction and demands.’”

• “Intermittent showers have been forecast for Wednesday, but planes armed with special chemicals are ready to stop rain from spoiling the ceremony, as well as Friday’s Victory Day parade.”

A great interview has appeared on the Council on Foreign Relations website with an expert on Georgia and the Transcaucasus region, Elizabeth Fuller.

She does a good job explaining the motives behind Russia’s stance on Georgia and a number of the other already- or possible-breakaway republics, including (once again) the Georgia/Russia/Abkhazia spy plane saga. Of Russia/Georgia she says:

Russia will do anything to weaken Georgia without caring how the international community responds. But at the same time, the Russian leaders have a very cool head. They know exactly how far they can go in baiting Georgia and there is a red line beyond which it would be counterproductive to proceed.

It’s a substantial article and very much worth reading for anyone with an interest in the ever-changing region. And it’s really hard not to respect someone like Fuller who has a good handle on so many complex relationships there.

The spy plane story I referenced in a previous post seems to have changed significantly over the last several days. CNN now reports the situation entails Georgia accusing Russia of shooting down the spy plane in question, rather than Abkhazia claiming to have brought down the Georgian plane, though Abkhazia stands by the original version.

Vladimir Putin and Georgia’s Mikhail Saakashvili had a tense phone conversation Monday regarding the incident, and the Kremlin released a statement accusing Georgia of violating the 1994 ceasefire with Abkhazia by operating in Abkhazi airspace.

In a nutshell, these two graphs from the story sum up the general state of things between the two nations:

Saakashvili, the Georgian leader, has vowed to bring both Abkhazia and another breakaway region, South Ossetia, back under central government control. He also cultivated strong economic and military ties with the United States and actively sought NATO membership — much to Russia’s consternation.

Russia, meanwhile, has tacitly backed South Ossetia and Abkhazia, granting their residents passports and other support. Moscow recently announced that it was establishing stronger ties with both regions.

I hadn’t heard of it either, but Abkhazia is a breakaway republic of Georgia, the much better known former Soviet republic. Abkhazian air defense forces say they shot down an unmaned Georgian spy plane today, and that it wasn’t the first time Georgia had violated Abkhazian airspace. Georgia, however, denies the incident took place.

Abkhazia’s sovereignty hasn’t been recognized internationally since it declared independence in 1994 amid calls to dissociate itself from Georgia and focus instead on closer ties with Russia. Which brings us to related news from the US, where the state department Friday urged Russia not to move forward with plans to work more closely with the separatist regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which would only heighten tensions between Russia and Georgia.

Looking for help from NATO and the EU, Georgian Vice Prime Minister Giorgi Baramidze made haste to Brussels Friday. Russia had “crossed the red line” and “Europe and the Atlantic community must react,” he said. “We request the international community’s support in order not to let Russia legalize the de facto annexation of these territories.”

It seems the EU, NATO and, to a certain extent, the US could be kept busy for all of eternity sorting out the breaking-away-from-breakaway republics in the region.