Fledgling Democracies

The spy plane story I referenced in a previous post seems to have changed significantly over the last several days. CNN now reports the situation entails Georgia accusing Russia of shooting down the spy plane in question, rather than Abkhazia claiming to have brought down the Georgian plane, though Abkhazia stands by the original version.

Vladimir Putin and Georgia’s Mikhail Saakashvili had a tense phone conversation Monday regarding the incident, and the Kremlin released a statement accusing Georgia of violating the 1994 ceasefire with Abkhazia by operating in Abkhazi airspace.

In a nutshell, these two graphs from the story sum up the general state of things between the two nations:

Saakashvili, the Georgian leader, has vowed to bring both Abkhazia and another breakaway region, South Ossetia, back under central government control. He also cultivated strong economic and military ties with the United States and actively sought NATO membership — much to Russia’s consternation.

Russia, meanwhile, has tacitly backed South Ossetia and Abkhazia, granting their residents passports and other support. Moscow recently announced that it was establishing stronger ties with both regions.

A Russian NGO calling itself the Institute of Democracy and Cooperation, which aims to challenge Western views of Russia, has published a book theorizing that the events leading up to the Orange Revolution in Ukraine, as well as the toppling of Slobodan Milosovec in Serbia and Georgia’s Mikhail Saakashvili’s rise to power all were masterminded by forces in Western countries.

The analysts who make the case point, in particular, to the Committee of Voters of Ukraine, a group the authors say used American funds to resist Viktor Yanukovich, the pro-Russian candidate. Nonsense, says spokesman Aleksandr Chernenko: “The money we received from Western donors was allocated specifically for monitoring the election. After that we haven’t got a penny from anyone.”

Regardless of the credence (or lack thereof) of the allegations the book makes, it’s premise does put the spotlight on just what rights and responsibilites foreign NGOs have when their motives go beyond providing humanitarian aid, and also seek to affect a nation’s politics. Its precisely the concern behind Russia’s decision to closely monitor all foreign NGO activity.

The Discovery Institute’s Russia Blog has a great piece re: the above-referenced Institute for Democracy and Cooperation.

Anyone still wondering if Russia really matters again yet should consider the case closed: Wal-Mart is interested in expanding to the Russian market.

The mega-chain has hired a German retailing veteran, Stephan Fanderl, to “explore retail business opportunities in Russia and neighboring markets.” The company CEO says a timeline has not been established, but experts suspect it will take about two years.

Wal-Mart’s international sales grew 17 percent last year, compared to 6 percent in the U.S., so the foreign focus is not altogether surprising.

Talks are scheduled to begin tomorrow in the hopes of settling a decades-old squabble between Russia and Japan over four of the Kuril islands, an archipelago stretching between the two nations. For some sixty years, the two nations have fought over Etorofu, Kunashiri, Shikotan, and Habomai since the Soviet army occupied the islands at the close of WWII.

The two countries’ foreign ministers, Sergei Lavrov and Masahiko Komura, are also expected to discuss North Korea’s nuclear program and the July G8 summit to be held in Japan.

Substantial details of the history of the dispute are in Andrew Johnson’s 2001 paper here.

This piece on the Brookings Institute’s site is worth a read. Professor Vladimir N. Kolotov, of the Far East History Department at St. Petersburg State University offers good insight into how Russia’s foreign policy direction is affecting trends in East and Southeast Asia.

 Of course with a mention of Putin’s disdain for the U.S. war on terror.